Live Political Analysis — Projeksi Kerusi GE16
MODEL RUN 24 AUG 2026 Glossary Coalitions GE16 Process
Government Coalition
BN · GPS · GRS · PH
146 of 222 seats — 112 needed

The Government Coalition is projected 34 seats clear of a Majority. 25 of the Seats it holds are inside six points; losing every one would still hold a Majority, leaving it 9 clear.

The Dewan Rakyat, projected — Unjuran Dewan Rakyat

Seats run from the safest Government Seat at the left to the safest Non-government Seat at the right. Hollow rings are Seats inside six points — too close to call. Each is where a uniform Swing puts that Seat against its GE15 result, not a judgement about the constituency.

Seats stacked by Coalition, Government Coalitions first. The line marks the 112 needed for a Majority — which Seats are too close to call is in the ledger below.

Today, the count crosses 112 at Sri Gading (Johor). A uniform swing of 8.3 points would move the Majority line to the other side of it.

This states a position in a sort, not a claim about Sri Gading itself — the same arithmetic applied to any Seat at this position in the ordering.

112 — Majority · Majoriti34 seats to spareGovernmentNon-governmentIgan (Sarawak) — GPS by 88.9 pointsKepong (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 84.4 pointsSantubong (Sarawak) — GPS by 77.1 pointsSeputeh (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 76.6 pointsTanjong (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 76.0 pointsCheras (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 75.9 pointsTanjong Manis (Sarawak) — GPS by 75.4 pointsBukit Gelugor (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 74.5 pointsBukit Bintang (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 73.3 pointsBagan (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 73.1 pointsDamansara (Selangor) — PH by 72.9 pointsIpoh Barat (Perak) — PH by 71.9 pointsBatu Gajah (Perak) — PH by 71.9 pointsSegambut (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 69.9 pointsBukit Bendera (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 69.8 pointsBatang Sadong (Sarawak) — GPS by 68.7 pointsSubang (Selangor) — PH by 66.2 pointsBukit Mertajam (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 63.7 pointsPetra Jaya (Sarawak) — GPS by 62.0 pointsBatu Kawan (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 60.1 pointsMukah (Sarawak) — GPS by 58.6 pointsKapit (Sarawak) — GPS by 58.5 pointsKlang (Selangor) — PH by 57.4 pointsIpoh Timor (Perak) — PH by 56.3 pointsJelutong (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 55.9 pointsKota Samarahan (Sarawak) — GPS by 55.5 pointsBatang Lupar (Sarawak) — GPS by 55.5 pointsKota Kinabalu (Sabah) — PH by 53.3 pointsLimbang (Sarawak) — GPS by 52.6 pointsRasah (Negeri Sembilan) — PH by 50.9 pointsPuchong (Selangor) — PH by 47.0 pointsBeruas (Perak) — PH by 46.1 pointsBandar Kuching (Sarawak) — PH by 44.7 pointsBetong (Sarawak) — GPS by 43.3 pointsPandan (Selangor) — PH by 42.8 pointsKota Tinggi (Johor) — BN by 42.8 pointsSerian (Sarawak) — GPS by 42.3 pointsSembrong (Johor) — BN by 41.6 pointsBayan Baru (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 39.9 pointsKota Melaka (Melaka) — PH by 38.6 pointsKota Raja (Selangor) — PH by 38.4 pointsRanau (Sabah) — GRS by 38.2 pointsPengerang (Johor) — BN by 37.0 pointsSibuti (Sarawak) — GPS by 36.5 pointsPetaling Jaya (Selangor) — PH by 35.5 pointsSandakan (Sabah) — PH by 34.8 pointsHulu Rajang (Sarawak) — GPS by 33.9 pointsBintulu (Sarawak) — GPS by 33.8 pointsLawas (Sarawak) — GPS by 31.6 pointsTaiping (Perak) — PH by 30.9 pointsTenggara (Johor) — BN by 30.8 pointsBera (Pahang) — BN by 30.7 pointsLibaran (Sabah) — BN by 30.5 pointsBangi (Selangor) — PH by 29.3 pointsAmpang (Selangor) — PH by 29.2 pointsPapar (Sabah) — GRS by 28.5 pointsParit Sulong (Johor) — BN by 28.2 pointsPort Dickson (Negeri Sembilan) — PH by 28.1 pointsPuncak Borneo (Sarawak) — GPS by 27.8 pointsPontian (Johor) — BN by 27.8 pointsPenampang (Sabah) — PH by 27.4 pointsGopeng (Perak) — PH by 26.9 pointsBaram (Sarawak) — GPS by 26.4 pointsBatu (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 26.2 pointsSeremban (Negeri Sembilan) — PH by 25.7 pointsTanjung Piai (Johor) — BN by 24.3 pointsTeluk Intan (Perak) — PH by 24.3 pointsWangsa Maju (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 22.9 pointsKampar (Perak) — PH by 22.7 pointsIskandar Puteri (Johor) — PH by 22.1 pointsAyer Hitam (Johor) — BN by 21.2 pointsNibong Tebal (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 21.1 pointsLanang (Sarawak) — PH by 20.7 pointsRembau (Negeri Sembilan) — BN by 20.6 pointsJelebu (Negeri Sembilan) — BN by 20.3 pointsMersing (Johor) — BN by 19.9 pointsLipis (Pahang) — BN by 19.6 pointsSimpang Renggam (Johor) — BN by 19.0 pointsKalabakan (Sabah) — BN by 18.9 pointsSelangau (Sarawak) — GPS by 18.9 pointsBatu Sapi (Sabah) — GRS by 18.5 pointsTebrau (Johor) — PH by 17.0 pointsSelayang (Selangor) — PH by 16.8 pointsSetiawangsa (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 16.7 pointsPensiangan (Sabah) — BN by 16.7 pointsKulai (Johor) — PH by 16.6 pointsLembah Pantai (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 16.5 pointsSipitang (Sabah) — GRS by 16.4 pointsMas Gading (Sarawak) — PH by 16.3 pointsKeningau (Sabah) — GRS by 16.3 pointsCameron Highlands (Pahang) — BN by 16.0 pointsKuala Pilah (Negeri Sembilan) — BN by 15.6 pointsKinabatangan (Sabah) — BN by 15.3 pointsShah Alam (Selangor) — PH by 13.7 pointsTapah (Perak) — BN by 13.7 pointsPulai (Johor) — PH by 13.6 pointsKluang (Johor) — PH by 12.9 pointsSri Aman (Sarawak) — GPS by 12.8 pointsPekan (Pahang) — BN by 11.9 pointsSarikei (Sarawak) — GPS by 11.7 pointsBakri (Johor) — PH by 11.6 pointsSekijang (Johor) — BN by 11.2 pointsHulu Langat (Selangor) — PH by 11.2 pointsBandar Tun Razak (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — PH by 10.9 pointsSibu (Sarawak) — PH by 10.5 pointsKimanis (Sabah) — BN by 10.5 pointsJempol (Negeri Sembilan) — BN by 10.4 pointsTitiwangsa (W.P. Kuala Lumpur) — BN by 9.8 pointsBeaufort (Sabah) — BN by 9.3 pointsTawau (Sabah) — GRS by 9.0 pointsStampin (Sarawak) — PH by 8.5 pointsSri Gading (Johor) — BN by 8.3 pointsSepanggar (Sabah) — PH by 8.1 pointsPasir Gudang (Johor) — PH by 8.0 pointsGombak (Selangor) — PH by 8.0 pointsHang Tuah Jaya (Melaka) — PH by 7.3 pointsSepang (Selangor) — PH by 6.7 pointsLabis (Johor) — BN by 6.7 pointsMiri (Sarawak) — PH by 6.6 pointsRaub (Pahang) — PH by 6.5 pointsBatu Pahat (Johor) — PH by 6.3 pointsPagoh (Johor) — BN by 5.4 points — too close to callLenggong (Perak) — BN by 5.4 points — too close to callPaya Besar (Pahang) — BN by 4.3 points — too close to callTampin (Negeri Sembilan) — BN by 4.2 points — too close to callTanjong Malim (Perak) — PH by 4.1 points — too close to callSegamat (Johor) — BN by 3.6 points — too close to callTambun (Perak) — PH by 3.2 points — too close to callBagan Datuk (Perak) — BN by 2.9 points — too close to callMuar (Johor) — BN by 2.8 points — too close to callKanowit (Sarawak) — GPS by 2.7 points — too close to callBalik Pulau (Pulau Pinang) — PH by 2.6 points — too close to callLedang (Johor) — BN by 2.6 points — too close to callPutatan (Sabah) — BN by 2.3 points — too close to callJohor Bahru (Johor) — PH by 2.2 points — too close to callGua Musang (Kelantan) — BN by 1.8 points — too close to callJasin (Melaka) — BN by 1.7 points — too close to callSungai Siput (Perak) — PH by 1.6 points — too close to callLumut (Perak) — BN by 1.6 points — too close to callTuaran (Sabah) — GRS by 1.0 points — too close to callSungai Petani (Kedah) — PH by 1.0 points — too close to callBentong (Pahang) — BN by 1.0 points — too close to callKuala Selangor (Selangor) — BN by 0.8 points — too close to callAlor Gajah (Melaka) — BN by 0.8 points — too close to callLubok Antu (Sarawak) — GPS by 0.5 points — too close to callSungai Buloh (Selangor) — PH by 0.1 points — too close to callKuala Krau (Pahang) — PN by 0.1 points — too close to callRompin (Pahang) — PN by 0.1 points — too close to callLabuan (W.P. Labuan) — PN by 0.4 points — too close to callHulu Selangor (Selangor) — PN by 1.2 points — too close to callKuala Langat (Selangor) — PN by 1.4 points — too close to callGerik (Perak) — PN by 2.0 points — too close to callKepala Batas (Pulau Pinang) — PN by 2.1 points — too close to callTanjong Karang (Selangor) — PN by 2.2 points — too close to callMaran (Pahang) — PN by 2.4 points — too close to callBeluran (Sabah) — PN by 3.5 points — too close to callParit (Perak) — PN by 3.8 points — too close to callKuantan (Pahang) — PN by 4.2 points — too close to callPutrajaya (W.P. Putrajaya) — PN by 4.3 points — too close to callKudat (Sabah) — BEBAS by 4.4 points — too close to callTenom (Sabah) — BEBAS by 4.6 points — too close to callTemerloh (Pahang) — PN by 5.0 points — too close to callSungai Besar (Selangor) — PN by 5.4 points — too close to callJulau (Sarawak) — PBM by 5.9 points — too close to callMasjid Tanah (Melaka) — PN by 6.1 pointsPermatang Pauh (Pulau Pinang) — PN by 6.1 pointsPasir Salak (Perak) — PN by 6.9 pointsLahad Datu (Sabah) — WARISAN by 7.0 pointsKapar (Selangor) — PN by 7.5 pointsKota Belud (Sabah) — WARISAN by 7.9 pointsKuala Kangsar (Perak) — PN by 8.1 pointsPadang Rengas (Perak) — PN by 8.3 pointsIndera Mahkota (Pahang) — PN by 9.1 pointsTangga Batu (Melaka) — PN by 9.7 pointsJerantut (Pahang) — PN by 10.3 pointsParit Buntar (Perak) — PN by 10.3 pointsSabak Bernam (Selangor) — PN by 10.5 pointsAlor Setar (Kedah) — PN by 13.1 pointsMachang (Kelantan) — PN by 13.8 pointsKangar (Perlis) — PN by 14.6 pointsBukit Gantang (Perak) — PN by 16.1 pointsKota Marudu (Sabah) — KDM by 16.4 pointsTasek Gelugor (Pulau Pinang) — PN by 16.6 pointsPadang Serai (Kedah) — PN by 18.1 pointsKulim-Bandar Baharu (Kedah) — PN by 18.9 pointsHulu Terengganu (Terengganu) — PN by 20.2 pointsBesut (Terengganu) — PN by 20.3 pointsLarut (Perak) — PN by 20.8 pointsSetiu (Terengganu) — PN by 20.8 pointsMerbok (Kedah) — PN by 20.9 pointsPadang Terap (Kedah) — PN by 20.9 pointsKemaman (Terengganu) — PN by 22.5 pointsBaling (Kedah) — PN by 25.2 pointsPadang Besar (Perlis) — PN by 26.2 pointsLangkawi (Kedah) — PN by 27.0 pointsJeli (Kelantan) — PN by 27.6 pointsSaratok (Sarawak) — PN by 28.0 pointsBagan Serai (Perak) — PN by 28.2 pointsKuala Kedah (Kedah) — PN by 28.5 pointsKota Bharu (Kelantan) — PN by 29.5 pointsTumpat (Kelantan) — PN by 31.9 pointsBachok (Kelantan) — PN by 32.1 pointsKuala Nerus (Terengganu) — PN by 32.6 pointsRantau Panjang (Kelantan) — PN by 32.8 pointsPasir Puteh (Kelantan) — PN by 34.7 pointsKetereh (Kelantan) — PN by 35.5 pointsDungun (Terengganu) — PN by 36.1 pointsPokok Sena (Kedah) — PN by 36.8 pointsMarang (Terengganu) — PN by 37.0 pointsKuala Krai (Kelantan) — PN by 37.7 pointsJerlun (Kedah) — PN by 38.0 pointsKubang Pasu (Kedah) — PN by 38.5 pointsJerai (Kedah) — PN by 39.1 pointsPendang (Kedah) — PN by 40.2 pointsKuala Terengganu (Terengganu) — PN by 41.2 pointsSik (Kedah) — PN by 41.4 pointsPasir Mas (Kelantan) — PN by 46.1 pointsPengkalan Chepa (Kelantan) — PN by 48.2 pointsArau (Perlis) — PN by 48.6 pointsKubang Kerian (Kelantan) — PN by 49.2 pointsSemporna (Sabah) — WARISAN by 54.2 pointsTanah Merah (Kelantan) — PN by 63.2 points
112 — Majority · Majoriti
Safe · Selamat — over 12 points Likely · Berkemungkinan — 6 to 12 points Too close · Terlalu rapat — under 6 points
Seat ledger — against the GE15 Baseline
CoalitionProjectedGE15SwingToo close
Pakatan Harapan PH7281−97
Barisan Nasional BN4430+1415
Gabungan Parti Sarawak GPS2323±02
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah GRS76+11
Government total146——25
Perikatan Nasional PN6974−515
Parti Warisan WARISAN33±00
Independents BEBAS22±02
Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat KDM11±00
Parti Bangsa Malaysia PBM11±01
Parti Muda MUDA01−10
Pakatan Harapan PH72
GE15
81
Swing
−9
Too close
7
Barisan Nasional BN44
GE15
30
Swing
+14
Too close
15
Gabungan Parti Sarawak GPS23
GE15
23
Swing
±0
Too close
2
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah GRS7
GE15
6
Swing
+1
Too close
1
Government total146
GE15
—
Swing
—
Too close
25
Perikatan Nasional PN69
GE15
74
Swing
−5
Too close
15
Parti Warisan WARISAN3
GE15
3
Swing
±0
Too close
0
Independents BEBAS2
GE15
2
Swing
±0
Too close
2
Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat KDM1
GE15
1
Swing
±0
Too close
0
Parti Bangsa Malaysia PBM1
GE15
1
Swing
±0
Too close
1
Parti Muda MUDA0
GE15
1
Swing
−1
Too close
0
If every marginal fell
121

All 25 Government Seats inside six points lost, and still 9 clear of the Majority line.

If every marginal held
164

The 18 Seats inside six points on the other side fall to the Government Coalition instead.

Seats that must move
35

Government Seats that would have to change hands before the Majority goes.

State swing, applied locally
26

Seats moved by a state election result rather than by Sentiment alone — Johor (26). Every other state is untouched by it.

Sensitivity to the unfitted constant

The same Projection, recomputed at other values of an unfitted model constant — not a range of likely outcomes.

Sentiment sensitivityGovernment Coalition total
0.05146
0.10146
0.20150
Per-state rollup — the Swing Model's own unit

The Swing Model moves each state uniformly (ADR 0001/0003) — this is that structure, not a claim about any one Seat, and never drawn as a map (a choropleth would let a state's land area dominate its actual seat weight).

StateSeatsGE15ProjectedSwingSignal
Johor26BN 9 · MUDA 1 · PH 14 · PN 2BN 17 · PH 9BN +13.0 · PH −1.8 · PN −11.8State result
Kedah15PH 1 · PN 14PH 1 · PN 14BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Kelantan14PN 14BN 1 · PN 13BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Melaka6PH 3 · PN 3BN 2 · PH 2 · PN 2BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Negeri Sembilan8BN 5 · PH 3BN 5 · PH 3BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Pahang14BN 5 · PH 2 · PN 7BN 6 · PH 1 · PN 7BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Perak24BN 3 · PH 11 · PN 10BN 4 · PH 11 · PN 9BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Perlis3PN 3PN 3BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Pulau Pinang13PH 10 · PN 3PH 10 · PN 3BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Sabah25BEBAS 2 · BN 7 · GRS 6 · KDM 1 · PH 5 · PN 1 · WARISAN 3BEBAS 2 · BN 7 · GRS 7 · KDM 1 · PH 4 · PN 1 · WARISAN 3BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Sarawak31GPS 23 · PBM 1 · PH 6 · PN 1GPS 23 · PBM 1 · PH 6 · PN 1BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Selangor22PH 16 · PN 6BN 1 · PH 15 · PN 6BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
Terengganu8PN 8PN 8BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
W.P. Kuala Lumpur11BN 1 · PH 10BN 1 · PH 10BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
W.P. Labuan1PN 1PN 1BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—
W.P. Putrajaya1PN 1PN 1BN +0.6 · PH −1.4 · PN −1.5—